When it comes to the slowing economy , Ellen Spero isn’ t biting her nails just yet. But the 47-year-old manicurist isn’ t cutting, filling or polishing as many nails as she’ d like to, either. Most of her clients spend $ 12 to $ 50 weekly, but last month two longtime customers suddenly stopped showing up. Spero blames the softening economy. “I’m a good economic indicator, “ she says, “I provide a service that people can do without when they’re concerned about saving some dollars. “ So Spero is downscaling, shopping at middle-brow Dillard’ s department store near her suburban Cleveland home, instead of Neiman Marcus. “I don’t know if other clients are going to abandon me, too. “ she says. Even before Alan Greenspan’ s admission that America’ s red-hot economy is cooling, lots of working folks had already seen signs of the slowdown themselves. From car dealerships to gap outlets, sales have been lagging for months as shoppers temper their spending. For retailers, who last year took in 24 percent of their revenue between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the cautious approach is coming at a crucial time. Already, experts say, holiday sales are off 7 percent from last year’ s pace. But don’t sound any alarms just yet. Consumers seem only concerned, not panicked, and many say they remain optimistic about the economy’ s long-term prospects, even as fiiey do some modest belt-tightening. Consumers say they’ re not in despair because, despite the dreadful headlines, their own fortunes still feel pretty good. In Manhattan, “there’ s a new gold rush happening in the $4 million to $ 10 million range, predominantly fed by Wall Street bonuses, “ says broker Barbara Corcoran. In San Francisco, prices are still rising even as frenzied overbidding quiets. “Instead of 20 to 30 offers, now maybe you only get two or three, “ says John Deadly, a Bay Area real-estate broker. And most folks still feel pretty comfortable about their ability to find and keep a job. Many folks see silver linings to this slowdown. Potential homebuyers would cheer for lower interest rates. Employers wouldn’ t mind a little fewer bubbles in the job market. Many consumers seem to have been influenced by stock-market swings, which investors now view as a necessary ingredient to a sustained boom. Diners might see an upside, too. Getting a table at Manhattan’ s hot new Alain Ducasse restaurant need to be impossible. Not anymore. For that, Greenspan &Co. may still be worth toasting.

Water is a kind of chemical substance.Every year there are reports of people dying as the result of extremely hot weather. Many of the victims are old persons, whose hearts or breathing systems decline. But many die from lack of water. Water is necessary for life and good health. We often forget this fact when we think about the other building blocks of life such as vitamins, minerals and proteins. We can live for many days without eating, but two or three days without water usually leads to death. The human body may look solid, but most of it is water. New born babies are as much as 85% water. Women are about 65% water and men a-bout75%. Women usually have less water than men because women, in general, have more fat cells, and fat cells hold less water than other kinds of cells. Water does many different things to keep us healthy. It carries hormones , antibodies and foods through the body, and carries away waste materials. That is why different parts of the body contain different amounts of water. For example, blood is 83% water, muscles are 75% water, the brain is 74% , and bones are 25% . Water is also necessary for cooling the body under hot weather and when we are working hard or exercising, water carries body heat to the surface of the skin, where the heat is lost through perspiration. Researchers say cool liquids cool us faster than warm liquids, because cold liquids take up more heat inside the body and carry it away faster. They say, however, that cold sweet drinks do not work well because the sugar slows the liquid from getting into the blood-stream. Researchers also note that fat cells block body heat from escaping quickly. Fat cells under the skin act like warm clothing to keep body heat inside. This is why overweight people have a more easy time staying cool than thin people. The body loses water every day through perspiration and urine. If we lose too much, we will become sick. A 10% drop in body water can cause the blood system to fail. A 15% -20% drop usually leads to death. To replace what is lost, health experts say growing persons should drink about 2 liters of liquids each day, and more in hot weather. They say we can also get some of the water we need in the foods we eat. Most fruits and vegetables are more than 80% water. Meats are 50% -60% water. And even bread is about 33% water. Water may be one of the most simple of all chemical substances, but it is the most important substance that we put into our bodies. TRUE FALSE

Where can the expression “lame duck“ be heard?The expression, “lame duck“, can be heard in almost any American town or city, especially where people discuss politics. Most often, they use it to describe a politician who has come to the end of his power. There are a number of ideas as to where “lame duck“ came from, though the picture of a lame duck is clear enough: a duck that has had its wings cut, or its feet injured, and can no longer walk like a healthy one. The term seems to have come into the American language after the Civil War of 1861-1865. One explanation is that it came from the language of hunters who felt that it was foolish to waste powder or time on a dead duck. And a lame duck is close to being a dead duck. Another explanation, however, is that the expression came from England. There it was used to describe a man who lost all his money and could not pay his debts. He could do nothing but walk like a lame duck. And people showed little mercy for the poor fellow. But in the United States people took the phrase to describe congressman who failed to get re-elected but still had a little time left in office. Later, the expression was used in a broader sense, generally describing any man whose days of power were coming to an end. It has often been used to describe the position of an American president in the last two years or so of his second term. It is a difficult time for him, when Congress is ready to oppose him at every turn. Only among hunters. Among primary school pupils. Among beautiful ladies. Among people who are discussing politics.

What’s the average increase per year of foreign student population in the period between 1985 and 1990 in terms of percentage?For those of you who are either already studying in the United States or planning to one day, it might be interesting to know something about the foreign student population in the United States. For the academic year 1995/96 there was a sum of approximately 344, 000 foreign students studying in the United States. This figure of 344, 000 may seem like a very large number until you compare it with the total population of 241, 000, 000. The foreign student population has been growing for a number of years and is still growing, but the rate of increase has dropped sharply during the 1990s. During the 1980s, the population grew quite rapidly. For example, between 1985 and 1990, the average yearly increase was 12. 5%. However, the picture in the 1990s is quite different. The rate of increase has declined quite noticeably. In fact, the rate of increase between 1994/95 and 1995/96 was only 0. 5% , or one-half of one percent. Although the overall rate of increase has dropped to only 0. 5% , the number of students from some parts of the world is increasing while the number of students from other areas is decreasing. For example, during this same period, that is between the academic years 1994/ 95 and 1995/96, there was a decrease in the number of students from the Middle East, while the number of students from South and East Asia increased. These changes in the number of students coming from different parts of the world no doubt reflected changing economic and political situations. I’m sure you are aware of many of these changes, and perhaps we can discuss them at our next meeting. For today let’s confine our talk to first, a discussion of the origin of these students, or, in other words, where they came from; second, the kinds of studies they pursue; and, finally, the academic levels they are found in. If we have a little time left, we might quickly talk about in which geographic areas most of them go to school. Let’s discuss the origins of the foreign student population in the United States for the academic year 1995/96. Let’s discuss it in order from those areas sending the most students to those areas sending the fewest students. If we look at the figures provided by the annual census of foreign students in the United States for the year 1995/96, we see that most of the foreign students studying in the United States during this year were from South and East Asia. This is a rather large geographical area which includes such countries as China, Korea, Pakistan, India, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The total number of students from this area, South and East Asia was 156, 830. In other words, roughly 2 out of every 5 foreign students come from South and East Asia. Almost 24, 000 of this total were from China. Malaysia was close behind with just a little over 23, 000 students. The next largest number of students came from the Middle East. The number of students from the Middle East came to about one-third the number from South and East Asia. The fourth largest number came from South America. Next came Europe, Africa, North America, and Oceania. Let’s recapitulate what we’ve said. The largest number of students studying in the United States during the academic year 1995/96 were from South and East Asia, followed by the Middle East, South America, Europe, Africa, North America, and Oceania. What fields are these large numbers of foreign students studying in? It probably won’t surprise you that the largest number are in the field of engineering. In fact, 21. 7% of the total number are studying engineering. Business and management is close behind, however, with a total of 18. 9% . The third most popular field was mathematics and computer sciences with 10. 3% . As you can see, engineering with 21. 7% , business and management with 18. 9% , and mathematics and computer sciences with 10. 3% comprise about one half of the total number of foreign students. Let’s discuss which academic levels these students can be found in. Foreign students can be found studying at all levels of higher education. As you might expect, the greatest number of them are studying at the undergraduate level approximately 158, 000. The second largest group study at the graduate level and that number is just under 122 , 000. The rest study at junior colleges or in non-degree programs. It is at the graduate level that foreign students have the most impact. While foreign students comprise only 2. 7% of the total U. S. student population, they account for 8. 7% of all the graduate students studying at U. S. institutions. Let me give you those percentages a-gain so you can get a better view for the overall picture. Foreign students make up only 2. 7% of the total U. S. student population, but they make up 8. 7% of the total graduate student population. Well, I see that’s all the time we have today. We’ll have to leave discussions of the geographic areas these students study in until another time.

You will read a question which says, “Which is a better source of news—newspaper or TV?“ Write an article for the newspaper to clarify your own points of view towards this issue. You should use your own ideas, Knowledge or experience to generate support for your argument, including an example.

What are the speakers doing?W: Did you know it was going to rain today? M: Absolutely not. This comes as a big shock to me, especially since the paper says mostly sunny. W: Well, I guess the paper must have meant mostly sunny somewhere else. But since we’ve come out this way, why don’t we just move the blanket under that tree? M: That’s a good idea. It looks like it’s still dry there, as long as it doesn’t start to come down any harder. W: You didn’t happen to bring us a spare blanket, did you? Because this one is all wet now. M: No. But I do have some folding stools in the car. Will they do? W: They’ll be just fine. I’m really hungry. So while you’re there, how about bringing out the food? M: I thought you were bringing the food. W: This is unbelievable. If I weren’t so hungry, this would be really funny. So what now? M: What’s the name of the restaurant which you like so much? Visiting the new restaurant. Watching a parade. Having a picnic. Going to the beach.

A = BOOK REVIEW 1 B = BOOK REVIEW 2 C = BOOK REVIEW 3 D = BOOK REVIEW 4 Which book review(s)contain(s)the following information? Comparison of the significance of two economic books. 【P1】______ Stiglitz’s prestige in the field of economics. 【P2】______ Stiglitz’ s criticism of those who exaggerated the power of markets in developing countries. 【P3】______ Policy making should consider local conditions. 【P4】______ The intervention of government is the way to assist globalization. 【P5】______ Stiglitz’ s dedication to the development of poor countries. 【P6】______ Stiglitz’ s preference of one type of economic policy over another one. 【P7】______ More people joined Stiglitz in criticizing free trade and globalization. 【P8】______ Stiglitz’ s points have been supported by what actually happened in the country. 【P9】______ Mainly gives positive comments on Stiglitz and his new book. 【P10】______ A The main point of the book is simple: globalization is not helping many poor countries. Incomes are not rising in much of the world, and adoption of market-based policies such as open capital markets, free trade, and privatization are making developing economies less stable, not more. Instead of a bigger dose of free markets, Stiglitz argues, what’ s needed to make globalization work better is more and smarter government intervention. While this has been said before, the ideas carry more weight coming from someone with Stiglitz’ s credentials. In some ways, this book has the potential to be the liberal equivalent of Milton Friedman’ s 1962 classic Capitalism and Freedom, which helped provide the intellectual foundation for a generation of conservatives. But Globalization and Its Discontents does not rise to the level of capitalism and freedom. While Stiglitz makes a strong case for government-oriented development policy, he ignores some key arguments in favor of the market. “ The book’ s main villain is the International Monetary Fund, the Washington organization that lends to troubled countries“ , Stiglitz’ contempt for the IMF is boundless, “It is clear that the IMF has failed in its mission, “ he declares. “Many of the policies that the IMF pushed have contributed to global instability. B While parts of this book are disappointingly shallow, Stiglitz’ s critique of the market-driven 90’ s still resonates, especially when the business page is full of stories about white-collar crime and the stock market seems stuck in a perpetual rut. Even the United States cannot blithely assume that financial markets will work on autopilot. It is testament to the salience of Stiglitz’ s arguments that many economists—even some Bush Administration officials—now embrace his view that economic change in the developing world must evolve more with local conditions, not on Washington’ s calendar. Without a thorough makeover, globalization could easily become a quagmire. Stiglitz shared a Nobel Prize last year for bis work analyzing the imperfections of markets. His main complaint a-gainst Rubin and Summers, who served as Treasury Secretaries, and against Fischer, the NO. 2 official and de facto chief executive of the international Monetary Fund, is that they had too much faith that markets could transform poor countries overnight. He labels these three men market fundamentalists, who fought to maintain financial stability with the same urgency that an earlier generation struggled to contain communism. Worse, he suggests, they shilled for Wall Street, conflating the interests of the big banks with the financial health of the world. C “ Stiglitz, 58, is hardly the first person to accuse the IMF of operating undemocratically and exacerbating Third World poverty. But he is by far the most prominent and his emergence as a critic marks an important shift in the intellectual landscape. Only a few years ago, it was possible for pundits to claim that no mainstream economist, certainly nobody of Stiglitz’ s stature, took the criticism of free trade and globalization seriously. Such claims are no longer credible, for Stiglitz is part of a small but growing group of economists, sociologists and political scientists, among them Dani Rodrik of Harvard and Robert Wade of the London School of Economics, who not only take the critics seriously but warn that ignoring their concerns could have dire consequences. “ Over the past several years, Stiglitz, a celebrated theorist who was awarded the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics for his work on asymmetric information, has grown accustomed to being at the center of controversy. From 1997 to 2000, he served as senior vice president and chief economist at the World Bank—a title that did not stop him from publicly criticizing the bank’ s sister institution, the International Monetary Fund, Stiglitz’ s outspokenness, unprecedented for a high-ranking insider, infuriated top officials at the IMF and US Treasury Department, and eventually led James Wolfen-sohn, the World Bank’ s president, to inform him that he would have to mute his criticism or resign, Stiglitz chose to leave. D “ Stiglitz’ book makes a compelling case that simple-minded economic doctrine, inadequately tailored to the realities of developing countries, can do more harm than good, and that the subtleties of economic theory are actually quite important for sound policy advice. But simplistic political advice—give developing countries more voice and the institutions of global governance will be rendered more legitimate and efficient—is equally problematic. Political reform is as subtle and complex as economic reform. Evidently, the best minds among us have only begun to think about it. “ Joseph Stiglitz’ s memoirs of his years in Washington, D. C. —first as chair of President Bill Clinton’ s Council of Economic Advisers and then as chief economist at the World Bank—have the flavor of a morality play. Our goodhearted but slightly native hero, on leave from Stanford University, sets out for the nation’ s capital to serve his country and improve the lot of the developing world. Once there he finds a morass of political opportunism, ideologically motivated decision-making and bureaucratic inertia. Undeterred, he battles valiantly on behalf of impoverished nations against the unrelenting globalisers of the International Monetary Fund.

Which of the following about pickpocketing is not true?Throughout history, people have been the victims of pickpockets. Today , pickpocketing is one of the most rapidly increasing crimes. Pickpockets are increasing in number and developing better methods to apply their skill. Approximately, one million Americans lose money to pickpockets every year, and no one is really safe from a skilled pickpocket. His victims, or “marks“ as they are called, can be rich or poor, young or old. During the 18th century, pickpockets were hanged in England. Large crowds of people would gather to watch the hanging which was supposed to be a warning to other pickpockets. However, in time the practice was discontinued. The reason was that while people were concentratively watching the hanging of a pickpocket other pickpockets skillfully stole the money of the spectators! Police offcials say that most efficient pickpockets come from South America. Many of these expert pickpockets are trained in special schools called “Jingle Bell School“. A pickpocket graduates from a J. B. S. when he is able to steal a wallet from a dressed dummy(mannequin)that has bells inside its pockets. Even the most well-dressed, respectable person may be a pickpocket. Some of the favorite places of pickpockets are banks, airports, racetracks, supermarkets, elevators, and train and bus stations. Usually a pickpocket will work with another pickpocket as his partner. Another kind of pickpocket works outside or inside bars and specializes in stealing from persons who have had too much alcohol to drink. The pickpocket that specializes in stealing from women is called a “purse snatcher“. To avoid being the victim of a pickpocket, it is important to be very cautious and alert when in the midst of large gatherings of people. It is a fast increasing crime. Its methods are improving. Nobody is safe from a veteran pickpocket. There are about 4 000 000 victims every year.

Walking—like swimming, Bicycling and running—is an aerobic exercise, 【C1】______builds the capacity for energy output and physical endurance by increasing the supply of oxygen to skin and muscles. Such exercises may be a primary factor in the【C2】______of heart and circulatory disease. As probably the least strenuous, safest aerobic activity, walking is the【C3】______acceptable exercise for the largest number of people. Walking【C4】______comfortable speed improves the efficiency of the cardiorespiratory system【C5】______stimulating the lungs and heart, But at a more gradual rate【C6】______most other forms of exercise. In one test, a group of men 40 to 57 years of age, 【C7】______at a fast pace for 40 minutes four days a week, showed improvement【C8】______to men the same age on a 30 minute, three-day-a-week jogging program in the same period. Their resting heart rate and body fat decreased【C9】______. These changes suggest【C10】______of the important—even vital—benefits walking can【C11】______about. Walking【C12】______burns calories. It takes 3, 500 calories to gain or【C13】______one pound. Since a one-hour walk at a moderate pace will【C14】______up 300 to 360 calories. By walking one hour every other day, you can burn up a pound-and-a-half monthly, or 18 pounds【C15】______—providing there is no change in your intake of food. To【C16】______weight faster, walk an hour every day and burn up 3 pounds a month, or 36 pounds a year. 【C17】______ your age, right now is the time to give your physical well-being as much thought as you【C18】______to pensions or insurance. Walking is a vital defense【C19】______the ravages of degenerative diseases and aging. It is nature’s【C20】______of giving you a tuneup.

When it comes to the slowing economy , Ellen Spero isn’ t biting her nails just yet. But the 47-year-old manicurist isn’ t cutting, filling or polishing as many nails as she’ d like to, either. Most of her clients spend $ 12 to $ 50 weekly, but last month two longtime customers suddenly stopped showing up. Spero blames the softening economy. “I’m a good economic indicator, “ she says, “I provide a service that people can do without when they’re concerned about saving some dollars. “ So Spero is downscaling, shopping at middle-brow Dillard’ s department store near her suburban Cleveland home, instead of Neiman Marcus. “I don’t know if other clients are going to abandon me, too. “ she says. Even before Alan Greenspan’ s admission that America’ s red-hot economy is cooling, lots of working folks had already seen signs of the slowdown themselves. From car dealerships to gap outlets, sales have been lagging for months as shoppers temper their spending. For retailers, who last year took in 24 percent of their revenue between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the cautious approach is coming at a crucial time. Already, experts say, holiday sales are off 7 percent from last year’ s pace. But don’t sound any alarms just yet. Consumers seem only concerned, not panicked, and many say they remain optimistic about the economy’ s long-term prospects, even as fiiey do some modest belt-tightening. Consumers say they’ re not in despair because, despite the dreadful headlines, their own fortunes still feel pretty good. In Manhattan, “there’ s a new gold rush happening in the $4 million to $ 10 million range, predominantly fed by Wall Street bonuses, “ says broker Barbara Corcoran. In San Francisco, prices are still rising even as frenzied overbidding quiets. “Instead of 20 to 30 offers, now maybe you only get two or three, “ says John Deadly, a Bay Area real-estate broker. And most folks still feel pretty comfortable about their ability to find and keep a job. Many folks see silver linings to this slowdown. Potential homebuyers would cheer for lower interest rates. Employers wouldn’ t mind a little fewer bubbles in the job market. Many consumers seem to have been influenced by stock-market swings, which investors now view as a necessary ingredient to a sustained boom. Diners might see an upside, too. Getting a table at Manhattan’ s hot new Alain Ducasse restaurant need to be impossible. Not anymore. For that, Greenspan &Co. may still be worth toasting.

The Village Green in New Milford, Connecticut, is a snapshot of New England charm: a carefully manicured lawn flanked by scrupulously maintained colonial homes. Babysitters dandle kids in the wooden gazebo, waiting for commuter parents to return from New York. On a lazy afternoon last week Caroline Nicholas, 16, had nothing more pressing to do than drink in the early-summer sunshine and discuss the recent events in town. “ I don’t think a lot of older people knew there were unhappy kids in New Milford, “she said, “I could see it coming. “ In a five-day period in early June eight girls were brought to New Milford Hospital after what hospital officials call suicidal gestures. The girls, all between 12 and 17, tried a variety of measures, including heavy doses of alcohol, over-the-counter medicines and cuts or scratches to their wrists. None was successful, and most didn’t require hospitalization; but at least two attempts, according to the hospital, could have been vital. Their reasons seemed as mundane as the other happen-stances of suburban life. “I was just sick of it all, “one told a reporter, “Everything in life. “Most alarming, emergency-room doctor Frederick Lohse told a local reporter that several girls said they were part of a suicide pact. The hospital later backed away from this remark . But coming in the wake of at least sixteen suicide attempts over the previous few months, this sudden cluster—along with the influx of media—has set this well-groomed suburb of 23, 000 on edge. At a town meeting last Wednesday night, Dr Simon Sobo, chief of psychiatry at the hospital, told more than 200 parents and kids, “We’re talking about a crisis that has really gotten out of hand. “Later he added, “There have been more suicide attempts this spring than I have seen in the 13 years I have been here. “ Sobo said that the girls he treated didn’t have serious problems at home or school. “Many of these were popular kids, “he said, “They got plenty of love, but beneath the reassuring signs, a swath of teens here are not making it. “Some say that drugs, Both pot and ’ real drugs’ , are commonplace. Kids have shown up with LIFE SUCKS and LONG LIVE DEATH penned on their arms. A few girls casually display scars on their arms where they cut themselves. “You’d be surprised how many kids try suicide, “said one girl, 17. “You don’t want to put pain on other people;you put it on yourself. “She said she used to cut herself “just to release the pain“. Emily, 15, a friend of three of the girls treated in June, said one was having family problems, one was “upset that day “and the third was “just upset with everything else going on“. She said they weren’t really trying to kill themselves—they just needed concern. As Sobo noted, “What ’s going on in New Milford is not unique to New Milford. “The same underlying culture of despair could be found in any town. But teen suicide, he added, can be a “contagion“. Right now New Milford has the bug—and has it bad.

The history of responses to the work of the artist Sandro Botticelli(1444 - 1510)suggests that widespread appreciation by critics is a relatively recent phenomenon. Writing in 1550, Vasari expressed an unease with Botticelli’ s work, admitting that the artist fitted awkwardly into his evolutionary scheme of the history of art. Over the next two centuries, academic art historians defamed Botticelli in favor of his fellows Florentine, Michelangelo. Even when anti-academic art historians of the early nineteenth century rejected many of the standards of evaluation adopted by their predecessors, Botticelli’ s work remained outside of accepted taste, pleasing neither amateur observers nor connoisseurs.(Many of his best paintings, however, remained hidden away in obscure churches and private homes.) The primary reason for Botticelli’ s unpopularity is not difficult to understand: most observers, up until the mid-nineteenth century, did not consider him to be noteworthy, because his work, for the most part, did not seem to these observers to exhibit the traditional characteristics of the fifteenth-century Florentine art. For example, Botticelli rarely employed the technique of strict perspective and, unlike Michelangelo, never used chiaroscuro. Another reason for Botticelli’ s unpopularity may have been that his attitude toward the style of classical art was very different from that of his contemporaries. Although he was thoroughly exposed to classical art, he showed little interest in borrowing from the classical style. Indeed, it is paradoxical that a painter of large-scale classical subjects adopted a style that was only slightly similar to that of classical art. In any case, when viewers began to examine more closely the relationship of Botticelli’ s work to the tradition of the fifteenth century Florentine art, his reputation began to grow. Analyses and assessments of Botticelli made between 1850 and 1870 by the artists of the Pre-Raphaelite movement, as well as by the writer Pater(although he, unfortunately, based his assessment on an incorrect analysis of Botticelli’ s personality), inspired a new appreciation of Botticelli throughout the English-speaking world. Yet Botticelli’ s work, especially the Sistine frescoes, did not generate worldwide attention until it was finally subjected to a comprehensive and scrupulous analysis by Home in 1908. Home rightly demonstrated that the frescoes shared important features with paintings by other fifteenth-century Florentines—features such as skillful representation of anatomical proportions, and of the human figure in motion. However, Home argued that Botticelli did not treat these qualities as ends in themselves—rather, that he emphasized clear depletion of a story, a unique achievement and one that made the traditional Florentine qualities less central. Because of Home’ s emphasis crucial to any study of art, the twentieth century has come to appreciate Botticelli’ s achievements.

The press is constantly reminding us that the dramatic increase in the age of our population over the next 30 or so years will cause national healthcare systems to collapse, economies to crumple under the strain of pension demands and disintegrating families to buckle under increasing care commitments. Yet research at Oxford is beginning to expose some of the widespread myths that underlie this rhetoric. Demographic ageing is undoubtedly a reality. Life expectancy in developed countries has risen continuously over the past century, increasing the percentage of those over the age of 60 relative to those under the age of 15. By 2030 half the population of Western Europe will be over the age of 50, with a predicted average life expectancy of a further 40 years. By then, a quarter of the population will be over 65 and by 2050 the UK’ s current number of 10, 000 centenarians are predicted to have reached a quarter of a million. Some demographers have even suggested that half of all baby girls born in the West today will live to see the next century. 【R1】______ Indeed, if this could be achieved throughout the world, it would surely count as the success of civilization, for then we would also have conquered the killers of poverty, disease, famine and war. Decreasing mortality rates, increasing longevity and declining fertility mean smaller percentages of young people within populations. Over the past 20 years life expectancy at birth in the UK has risen by four years for men(to 75)and three years for women(to 80). Meanwhile fertility rates across Europe have declined more or less continuously over the past 40 years and remain well below the levels required for European populations to be able to replace themselves without substantive immigration. But again, rather than seeing this as a doom and gloom scenario, we need to explore the positive aspects of these demographics. The next 50 years should provide us with an opportunity to enjoy the many advantages of a society with a mature population structure. 【R2】______ The first of these is the current political rhetoric which claims that health services across the Western world are collapsing under the strain of demographic ageing. 【R3】______ The second myth is the view that the ratio of workers to non-workers will become so acute that Western economies will collapse, compounded by a massive growth in pension debt. While there are undoubted concerns over current pension shortfalls, it is also clear that working lives will themselves change over the next few decades, with a predicted increase in flexible and part-time work and the probable extension of working life until the age of 70. Indeed, we have to recognize that we cannot expect to retire at the age of 50 and then be able to support ourselves for another 40 or so years. Neither a solid pension scheme nor savings can carry people that long. 【R4】______ A further myth is that we will all live in loose, multigenerational families, experiencing increased emotional distancing from our kin. Evidence from a variety of studies across the developed world suggests that, if anything, the modern family is actually becoming more close-knit. Work carried out by the Oxford Institute in Scandinavia and in a Pan-European Family Care Study, for example, shows that despite the influence of the welfare state, over the past 10 years, people have come to value family relationships more than previously. 【R5】______ In the developed world, therefore, we can see actual benefits from population ageing: a better balance between age groups, mature and less volatile societies, with an emphasis on age integration. The issues will be very different in other parts of the world. Herein lies another myth: that the less developed world will escape from demographic ageing. Instead, the massive increase in the age of populations facing these countries-predicted to be up to one billion older people within 30 years—is potentially devastating. The problem is not only that demographic ageing is occurring at a far greater pace than we have seen in Western nations, but also that few if any developing countries have the economic development and infrastructure necessary to provide widespread public pensions and healthcare to these growing elderly populations. As a result, older people are among the poorest in every developing country. They have the lowest levels of income , education and literacy, they lack savings and assets, have only limited access to work, and even in times of crisis are usually the last to be cared for under emergency aid programmes. Perhaps of most concern is healthcare, for as we conquer acute diseases, we are going to see a rapid increase in levels of chronic illness and disability, but no long-term care programmes or facilities to tackle this. A. Since it is likely that a longer active working life will coincide with a predicted labor shortage resulting from a lack of younger workers, we need to provide the opportunities and training to encourage older men and women to remain economically productive. Our studies show that there are benefits from having an age-integrated workforce. It is another myth that older workers are less productive than younger ones. In fact, the combined energy of younger workers with the experience of older ones can lead to increased productivity— something from which young and old alike will benefit. B. In 2001 , in recognition of the significance of these demographic changes and the global challenges and opportunities that will accompany them, the Oxford Institute of Ageing was established at the University. It is made up of researchers in demography, sociology, economics, social anthropology, philosophy and psychology, with links to other specialists in medicine, biology, law and policy in research units across the U-niversity. This cross-disciplinary approach has made it possible to challenge some of the most pervasive myths about ageing societies. C. As Institute healthcare ethicist Kenneth Howse points out, family obligations towards older relatives may change over the next 20 years, but current indications are that families are retaining a strong responsibility to care. Furthermore, as societies age, the contributory role of older people as grandparents becomes more important. Work by Institute researchers on another European Union study on multi-generational families has highlighted the role that grandparents play by freeing up the responsibilities of the younger reproductive population. D. It is clear that the changing demographic landscape poses challenges for the future. The necessity now is to develop appropriate economic, social and political structures to take advantage of the opportunities that mature societies will bring, while ensuring that there are appropriate safety nets for those left vulnerable within these populations—which will include both young and old alike. E. Rather than fearing such a future, however, we should see this trend as a great success. It must undoubtedly be a major achievement of civilization that most individuals within a society can expect to enjoy a long and healthy lifespan. F. George Leeson, a demographer at the Institute, points out that while a number of cross-national studies have considered the determinants of spiraling healthcare costs, only one has found the explanatory factor to be the proportion of the population aged 65 and over. Rather, it is growth in income, lifestyle characteristics and environmental factors such as technology and drugs that are driving up healthcare costs. In addition, the costs are shifting between population groups. The key here, he adds, is to develop sufficiently flexible health service structures to shift not only economic resources but also personnel.

By “Ellen Spero isn’t biting her nails just yet“(Line 1, Paragraph 1), the author means______.

How do the public feel about the current economic situation?

When mentioning “the $4 million to $10 million range“(Line 2, Paragraph 3)the author is talking a-bout______.

Why can many people see “silver linings“ to the economic slowdown?

To which of the following is the author likely to agree?