There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well. The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail. The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.

Cosmetic surgery, also known as “plastic“ surgery, is the science of changing the way a person looks by reshaping a part of the body. The science of beauty has changed with time, but the desire for beauty remains the same. Today I am going to talk about how the changes of fashion have led to the new modem age of cosmetic surgery. In the 1700s, height and weight became an important part of beauty. During the time of the French Revolution, many women used to wear corsets, belts that made their waists appear much slimmer. In England in the 1500s, makeup became an important part of beauty. Some women used to paint their .face white. They thought this made them more attractive. Later, in North America, some women used to eat arsenic, a dangerous poison, to make their faces whiter. By the 1860s, American women started using makeup to make themselves more charming. In the 1890s, Americans discovered that bicycle tiding could actually improve their appearance! They exercised in order to look and feel better. The popularity of bicycle riding even led to a change in fashion. American women began to wear shorter skirts instead of the. traditional long, full ones. Although diet and exercise are still popular ways of improving one’s appearance, there are some parts of the body that cannot change without the help of a cosmetic surgeon. In the past, American women used to spend weeks repeating words that started with the “P“ because they wanted to change the shape of their mouths. Today a cosmetic surgeon can reshape the nose or lips in a few hours. Rhinoplasty, the reshaping of nose, can greatly improve a person’s image. Surprisingly, cosmetic surgery has been used for centuries in China and India. Today it is used in many countries to improve the outlook of people who have been hurt in fires or in car accidents It is also used to improve the appearance of children who are born with physical problem. Questions: 15.What is the topic of the lecture? 16.What did women in North America do to improve their appearance in 1890s? 17.What do you think is the speaker’s attitude towards rhinoplasty? 18.Which statement is NOT true according to the lecture? Why people will take plastic surgery. How cosmetics develop in its long history. How the change of fashion led to the development of cosmetic surgery. How people from all over the world make themselves look better.

Nora White: This is Nora White reporting for station KTFH in Florida. (Pause) The sky is clear blue, and the ocean is deceptively calm here in Pitsea Beach in Southern Florida. It’s the kind of day when you would expect the beaches to be packed with tourists, enjoying the surf and sun. But the beaches are eerily silent, except for a few seagulls circling the waves. Traveling inland, though, you’ll find a totally different mood. Parking spaces are hard to find, and there are long lines at every checkout counter as people stock up on batteries, water bottles, and flashlights. You see, despite the calm weather now, the citizens of season. (Pause) With me today in Pitsea Beach is meteorologist Henry Anselma, who will tell us how to prepare for a. hurricane. We’ll also hear what local residents and tourists are doing to prepare for the storm. Henry, can you tell us what to expect? Henry Anselma: Nora, Hurricane Haley is about 70 miles off the coast of Florida, with winds reported to be up to 100 miles per hour. Already, it has caused considerable damage to islands in the Caribbean. Notices warning residents and visitors to evacuate have been issued in several counties in southern Florida. NW: So residents are being warned to evacuate. However, most residents are not leaving. They think they’ll be all right. In their experiences, the hurricanes are not as bad as usually predicted. And the radio stations are stressing that people should stay informed and NOT second-guess the authorities. Apparently, despite the sophisticated satellite, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar used by the National Weather Service, forecasting the path of a hurricane is not an easy task. Can you explain, Henry? HA: We input a lot of data into the computer to get a forecast, but there’s still an element of interpretation that needs to be done. Often the storm will change route or intensity unexpectedly and folks must realize that they can be very, very vulnerable. NW: Henry, what can people do in advance to be safe? HA: Stock up on supplies. You should have plenty of water on hand, at least a couple of gallons per person, and more if possible. Don’t forget when sewers back up, and water gets contaminated. You should have enough food to last you at least three days, more if you can do it; for your canned goods, make sure that you’ve got a can opener on hand—manual, not electric. You’ll need a flashlight for a power outage, and a radio—battery-powered to keep informed. Don’t forget any regular medication. NW: Henry also says that a sturdy pair of work boots should be added to the list. Why is that, Henry? HA: Yes, when you come back, if your place has been damaged, you don’t want to be walking into dangerous things, including any snakes that might be floating around, dislocated by the hurricane like you’ve been. NW: We also find that most tourists, ready for a carefree vacation, aren’t prepared to face a hurricane. But if you’re planning to visit a coastal spot during the summer months, you need to plan for the possibility of a hurricane before your trip. How can tourists do this, Henry? HA: I think the main thing for tourist is to know what plans or provisions the hotel has and what they’re going to do if the power’s out, if the water’s bad. You need to know where you’re going if you have to leave early, because roads get flooded, and highways get backed up with traffic, NW: Do you need extra money? HA: Sure. If you’re stuck longer, you’ll need access to additional cash, and you should know how you’re going to get it, even if the ATMs are out of order. Those money machines won’t be working if the power’s gone. You have to know, basically, how to change your plans fast. HW: Thank you, Henry ... Back in Pitsea Beach, all residents can do is watch, wait, and try not m panic. For Florida KTFH, this is Nora White. Question No. 19: What is the most probable job of the man? Nora White: This is Nora White reporting for station KTFH in Florida. (Pause) The sky is clear blue, and the ocean is deceptively calm here in Pitsea Beach in Southern Florida. It’s the kind of day when you would expect the beaches to be packed with tourists, enjoying the surf and sun. But the beaches are eerily silent, except for a few seagulls circling the waves. Traveling inland, though, you’ll find a totally different mood. Parking spaces are hard to find, and there are long lines at every checkout counter as people stock up on batteries, water bottles, and flashlights. You see, despite the calm weather now, the citizens of season. (Pause) With me today in Pitsea Beach is meteorologist Henry Anselma, who will tell us how to prepare for a. hurricane. We’ll also hear what local residents and tourists are doing to prepare for the storm. Henry, can you tell us what to expect? Henry Anselma: Nora, Hurricane Haley is about 70 miles off the coast of Florida, with winds reported to be up to 100 miles per hour. Already, it has caused considerable damage to islands in the Caribbean. Notices warning residents and visitors to evacuate have been issued in several counties in southern Florida. NW: So residents are being warned to evacuate. However, most residents are not leaving. They think they’ll be all right. In their experiences, the hurricanes are not as bad as usually predicted. And the radio stations are stressing that people should stay informed and NOT second-guess the authorities. Apparently, despite the sophisticated satellite, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar used by the National Weather Service, forecasting the path of a hurricane is not an easy task. Can you explain, Henry? HA: We input a lot of data into the computer to get a forecast, but there’s still an element of interpretation that needs to be done. Often the storm will change route or intensity unexpectedly and folks must realize that they can be very, very vulnerable. NW: Henry, what can people do in advance to be safe? HA: Stock up on supplies. You should have plenty of water on hand, at least a couple of gallons per person, and more if possible. Don’t forget when sewers back up, and water gets contaminated. You should have enough food to last you at least three days, more if you can do it; for your canned goods, make sure that you’ve got a can opener on hand—manual, not electric. You’ll need a flashlight for a power outage, and a radio—battery-powered to keep informed. Don’t forget any regular medication. NW: Henry also says that a sturdy pair of work boots should be added to the list. Why is that, Henry? HA: Yes, when you come back, if your place has been damaged, you don’t want to be walking into dangerous things, including any snakes that might be floating around, dislocated by the hurricane like you’ve been. NW: We also find that most tourists, ready for a carefree vacation, aren’t prepared to face a hurricane. But if you’re planning to visit a coastal spot during the summer months, you need to plan for the possibility of a hurricane before your trip. How can tourists do this, Henry? HA: I think the main thing for tourist is to know what plans or provisions the hotel has and what they’re going to do if the power’s out, if the water’s bad. You need to know where you’re going if you have to leave early, because roads get flooded, and highways get backed up with traffic, NW: Do you need extra money? HA: Sure. If you’re stuck longer, you’ll need access to additional cash, and you should know how you’re going to get it, even if the ATMs are out of order. Those money machines won’t be working if the power’s gone. You have to know, basically, how to change your plans fast. HW: Thank you, Henry ... Back in Pitsea Beach, all residents can do is watch, wait, and try not m panic. For Florida KTFH, this is Nora White. Question No. 19: What is the most probable job of the man? Nora White: This is Nora White reporting for station KTFH in Florida. (Pause) The sky is clear blue, and the ocean is deceptively calm here in Pitsea Beach in Southern Florida. It’s the kind of day when you would expect the beaches to be packed with tourists, enjoying the surf and sun. But the beaches are eerily silent, except for a few seagulls circling the waves. Traveling inland, though, you’ll find a totally different mood. Parking spaces are hard to find, and there are long lines at every checkout counter as people stock up on batteries, water bottles, and flashlights. You see, despite the calm weather now, the citizens of season. (Pause) With me today in Pitsea Beach is meteorologist Henry Anselma, who will tell us how to prepare for a. hurricane. We’ll also hear what local residents and tourists are doing to prepare for the storm. Henry, can you tell us what to expect? Henry Anselma: Nora, Hurricane Haley is about 70 miles off the coast of Florida, with winds reported to be up to 100 miles per hour. Already, it has caused considerable damage to islands in the Caribbean. Notices warning residents and visitors to evacuate have been issued in several counties in southern Florida. NW: So residents are being warned to evacuate. However, most residents are not leaving. They think they’ll be all right. In their experiences, the hurricanes are not as bad as usually predicted. And the radio stations are stressing that people should stay informed and NOT second-guess the authorities. Apparently, despite the sophisticated satellite, reconnaissance aircraft, and radar used by the National Weather Service, forecasting the path of a hurricane is not an easy task. Can you explain, Henry? HA: We input a lot of data into the computer to get a forecast, but there’s still an element of interpretation that needs to be done. Often the storm will change route or intensity unexpectedly and folks must realize that they can be very, very vulnerable. NW: Henry, what can people do in advance to be safe? HA: Stock up on supplies. You should have plenty of water on hand, at least a couple of gallons per person, and more if possible. Don’t forget when sewers back up, and water gets contaminated. You should have enough food to last you at least three days, more if you can do it; for your canned goods, make sure that you’ve got a can opener on hand—manual, not electric. You’ll need a flashlight for a power outage, and a radio—battery-powered to keep informed. Don’t forget any regular medication. NW: Henry also says that a sturdy pair of work boots should be added to the list. Why is that, Henry? HA: Yes, when you come back, if your place has been damaged, you don’t want to be walking into dangerous things, including any snakes that might be floating around, dislocated by the hurricane like you’ve been. NW: We also find that most tourists, ready for a carefree vacation, aren’t prepared to face a hurricane. But if you’re planning to visit a coastal spot during the summer months, you need to plan for the possibility of a hurricane before your trip. How can tourists do this, Henry? HA: I think the main thing for tourist is to know what plans or provisions the hotel has and what they’re going to do if the power’s out, if the water’s bad. You need to know where you’re going if you have to leave early, because roads get flooded, and highways get backed up with traffic, NW: Do you need extra money? HA: Sure. If you’re stuck longer, you’ll need access to additional cash, and you should know how you’re going to get it, even if the ATMs are out of order. Those money machines won’t be working if the power’s gone. You have to know, basically, how to change your plans fast. HW: Thank you, Henry ... Back in Pitsea Beach, all residents can do is watch, wait, and try not m panic. For Florida KTFH, this is Nora White. Questions: 19.What is the most probable job of the man? 20.Which of the items was NOT mentioned as useful in the preparation for Hurricane? 21.Which of the following threats was mentioned by the man in the conversation? 22.Which can be implied from the conversation? Government official. Expert on weather study. City councilor. Reporter.

The past 20 years have seen enormous changes in the lives and structures of families in Britain, and the traditional model is no longer true in many cases. The biggest change has been caused by divorce. As many as 2 out of 3 marriages now end in divorce. There has also been a huge rise in the number of mothers who work. This has caused an increase in childcare facilities, though they are very expensive and can be difficult to find in many areas.

Psychologists agree that I.Q. contributes only about 20% of the factors that determine success. A full 80% comes from other factors, including what I call emotional intelligence. Following are two of the major qualities that make up emotional intelligence, and how they can be developed: Self-awareness The ability to recognize a feeling as it happens is the keystone of emotional intelligence. People with greater certainty about their emotions are better pilots of their lives. Developing self-awareness requires tuning in to what neurologist Antonio Damasio calls “gut feelings“. Gut feelings can occur without a person being consciously aware of them. For example, when people who fear snakes are shown a picture of a snake, sensors on their skin will detects sweat, a sign of anxiety, even though the people say they do not feel fear. The sweat shows up even when a picture is presented so rapidly that the subject has no conscious awareness of seeing it. Through deliberate effort we can become more aware of our gut feelings. Take someone who is annoyed by a rude encounter for hours after it occurred. He may be unaware of his irritability and surprised when someone calls attention to it. But if he evaluates his feelings, he can change them. Emotional self-awareness is the building block of the next fundamental of emotional intelligence: being able to shake off a bad mood. Mood Management Bad as well as good moods spice life and build character. The key is balance. We often have little control over when we are swept by emotion. But we can have some say in how long that emotion will last. Psychologist Dianne Tice asked more than 400 men and women about their strategies for escaping foul moods. Her research, along with that of other psychologists, provides valuable information on how to change a bad mood. Of all the moods that people want to escape, rage seems to be the hardest to deal with. When someone in another car eats you off on the highway, your reflexive thought may be: That jerk! He could have hit me! I can’t let him get away with that! The more you stew, the angrier you get. Such is the stuff of hypertension and reckless driving. What should you do to relieve rage? One myth is that ventilating will make you feel better. In fact, researchers had found that’s one of the worst strategies. A more effective technique is “reframing’, which means consciously reinterpreting a situation in a more positive light. In the case of the driver who cuts you off, you might tell yourself: Maybe he had some emergency. This is one of the most potent ways, Tice found, to put anger to rest. Going off alone to cool down is also an effective way to refuse anger, especially if you can’t think clearly. Tice found that a large proportion of men cool down by going for a drive—a finding that inspired him to drive more defensively. A safer alternative is exercise, such as taking a long walk. Whatever you do, don’t waste the time pursuing your train of angry thoughts. Your aim should be to distract yourself. The techniques of reframing and distraction can alleviate depression and anxiety as well as anger. Add to them such relaxation techniques as deep breathing and meditation and you have an arsenal of weapons against bad moods.

The United States has moved beyond the industrial economy stage to the point where it has become the world’s first service economy. Almost three-fourths of the nonfarm labor force is employed in service industries, and over two-thirds of the nation’s gross national product is accounted for by services. Also, service jobs typically hold up better during a recession than do jobs in industries producing tangible goods. During the 20-year period of 1966 to 1986, about 36 million new jobs were created in the United States—far more than in Japan and Western Europe combined. About 90 percent of these jobs were in service industries. During this same time span, some 22 million women joined the labor force—and 97 percent of these women went to work in the service sector. These employment trends are expected to continue at least until the year 2010. For the period 1986—2000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that over 21 million new jobs were created and 93 percent of them were in service industries. Moreover, most of this explosive growth in services employment is not in low-paying jobs, contrary to the beliefs of many economists, business and labor leaders, and politicians. These people argue that manufacturing jobs, which have been the economic foundation of America’s middle class, are vanishing. They claim that factory workers are being replaced with a host of low-wage earners. It is true that manufacturing jobs have declined, with many of them going to foreign countries. It is also true that there has been growth in some low- paying service jobs. Yet cooks and counter people still represent only 1 percent of the U.S. labor force today. Furthermore, for many years the fastest-growing occupational category has been “professional, technical, and related work.“ These jobs pay well above the average, and most are in service industries. About one-half of consumer expenditures are for the purchase of services. Projections to the year 2010 indicate that services will attract an even larger share of consumer spending. A drawback of the service economy boom is that the prices of most services have been going up at a considerably faster rate than the prices of most tangible products. You are undoubtedly aware of this if you have had your car or TV set repaired, had your shoes half-soled, or paid a medical bill in recent years. When we say that services account for close to one-half of consumer expenditures, we still grossly understate the economic importance of services. These figures do not include the vast amounts spent for business services. By all indications, spending for business services has increased even more rapidly than spending for consumer services.

In size, Canada is the second largest country on earth. In terms of【C1】______, it is a member of Big Seven, the world’s leading industrial nations,【C2】______the United States, France, the United Kingdom,【C3】______Canada plays an active role【C4】______, often taking part in peacekeeping and humanitarian missions and spearheading【C5】______. Its scenery of mountains, oceans, forests and prairies is【C6】______. It has a lively and rich culture, with many world famous actors, pop stars and writers. In annual “quality of life“, Canada regularly is rated as having【C7】______of living in the world because of its health care, education,【C8】______, social welfare, and so on. 【C9】______its physical size, economic power and international prestige, Canada’s population is very small. The current population is【C10】______. This paradox of having a small number of people in a very large, resource-rich area gives rise to some of【C11】______people have about Canada. Most people do not know very much about Canada. Mention the country and usually【C12】______will spring to mind. On the one hand, you might picture【C13】______, frozen country where people live in igloos, eat fish, hunt bears and【C14】______snow and cold. On the other, you might think Canada is a country that is “just like America.“ Even Americans【C15】______Canada as the 51st state, a part of America that through some quirk of history is not one of the United States. It is easy to understand how such【C16】______of Canada have become engrained. It is true that most of Canada lies very far north. Large areas of the country are wild, virtually unpopulated【C17】______, full of dangerous animals and freezing temperatures. But most Canadians live in the south of the country: about【C18】______of the population is estimated to live within【C19】______of the Canadian-American border, in a climate that is much【C20】______.In size, Canada is the second largest country on earth. In terms of economic power, it is a member of Big Seven, the world’s leading industrial nations, ranking along with the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany and Japan. Canada plays an active role in international affairs, often taking part in peacekeeping and humanitarian missions and spearheading aid and development programs. Its scenery of mountains, oceans, forests and prairies is spectacular. It has a lively and rich culture, with many world famous actors, pop stars and writers. In annual “quality of life“, Canada regularly is rated as having the best standard of living in the world because of its health care, education, clean environment, social welfare, and so on. In contrast to its physical size, economic power and international prestige, Canada’s population is very small. The current population is about 30.6 million. This paradox of having a small number of people in a very large, resource-rich area gives rise to some of the misleading perceptions people have about Canada. Most people do not know very much about Canada. Mention the country and usually one of two images will spring to mind. On the one hand, you might picture a sparsely populated, frozen country where people live in igloos, eat fish, hunt bears and constantly endure snow and cold. On the other, you might think Canada is a country that is “just like America“. Even Americans are inclined to think of Canada as the 51st state, a part of America that through some quirk of history is not one of the United States. It is easy to understand how such misleading impressions of Canada have become engrained. It is true that most of Canada lies very far north. Large areas of the country are wild, virtually unpopulated arctic region, full of dangerous animals and freezing temperatures. But most Canadians live in the south of the country, about 90 percent of the population is estimated to live within a few hundred kilometers of the Canadian-American border, in a climate that is much less extreme.

Twenty percent of McDonald’s fast-food sales are outside the United States. One areas in which McDonald’s is expanding successfully is Brazil, where 30 million to 40 million middle class people, most living in densely packed cities, provide a concentrated market for a fast-food chain. There wasn’t much difference between Brazilian and American McDonald’s. The restaurants looked alike. The menu was more or less the same. A white paper bag, with yellow lettering, exactly like the take-out bags used in American McDonald’s, carded several messages about how Brazilians could bring McDonald’s into their lives. However, it seemed McDonald’s Brazilian ad campaign was missing some important points about how fast-food should be marketed in a culture that values large, leisurely lunches. Brazilians prefer their main meal at midday, often eating at a leisurely pace with business associates. Many firms serve ample lunches to their employees. Other workers take advantages of a two-hour lunch break to go home to eat with the spouse and children. Nor did it make much sense to suggest that children should eat hamburgers for lunch, since most kids attend school for half-day sessions and have lunch at home. The homes of Brazilians who can afford McDonald’s products have cooks and maids to do many of the things that fast-food restaurants do in the United States. The suggestion that McDonald’s products be eaten “while watching your favorite television program“ is culturally appropriate, because Brazilians watch TV a lot. However, Brazil’s consuming classes can ask the cook to make a snack when feeling hungry. Indeed much televiewing occurs during the light dinner served when the husband gets home from the office. Most appropriate to the Brazilian life style was the suggestion to enjoy McDonald’s “on the cook’s day off“. Throughout Brazil, Sunday is that day. The Sunday pattern for middle-class families is a trip to the beach, liters of beer, a full midday meal around 3 p.m., and a light evening snack. McDonald’s has found its niche in the Sunday evening meal, when families flock to the fast food restaurant, and it is to this market that its advertising is now appropriately geared. Questions: 23.Which group of Brazilians are targeted by McDonald’s in Brazil? 24.Which statement is true about the comparison between McDonald’s in United States and Brazil? 25.Which of the following is NOT true about Brazilians? 26.According to the talk. what is McDonald’s supposed to do next? Children and teenagers. City-dwellers of middle class. Blue-collars in firms. Brazil’s consuming class.

Man: In the late 1850s Chinese laborers flooded into American and it was not until early 1860’s that many more Chinese arrived in California. Was there any improvement for Chinese’s living conditions? Woman: Oh, no. This time when the men were imported as work crews to construct the first transcontinental railroad. They were sorely needed because the work was so strenuous and dangerous, and it was carried on in such a remote part of the country the railroad company could not find other laborers for the job. As their predecessors, these Chinese were almost all males. Man: And I guess they, too, encountered a great deal of prejudice? Woman: Exactly. The hostility grew especially strong after the railroad project was completed, and the imported laborers returned to California—thousands of them, all out of work. Man: And their days were even harder? Woman: Yes. Because there were so many more of them this time, these Chinese drew even more attention than the earlier group did. They were so very different in every respect. Man: I think so. Like their physical appearance, the long pigtail at the back of their otherwise shaved heads; the strange, non-western clothes, the speech and their religion. Woman: What’s more, when times were hard, they were blamed for working for lower wages and taking jobs away from white men. Anti-Chinese riots broker out in several cities. Chinese were barred from using the courts and also from becoming American citizens. Finally in 1882, the Congress passes the Chinese Exclusion Act, which stopped the immigration. Many Chinese returned to their homeland, and their numbers declined sharply in the early part of this century. Questions: 27.When did Chinese laborers arrive in California? 28.Why were so many Chinese workers needed for the work? 29.Which of the followings is NOT the reason why Chinese people were prejudiced? 30.What directly accounts for the drastic drop in Chinese immigrants according to the passage? Early 1830s. Late 1840s. Late 1850s. Early 1860s.

A ferry believed overloaded with at least two hundred passengers sank in central Indonesia. At least 5 people are confirmed dead so far, and more than 120 people have been hospitalized.

There are several different methods that can be used to create a forecast. The method a forecaster chooses depends upon the experience of the forecaster, the amount of information available to the forecaster, the level of difficulty that the forecast situation presents, and the degree of accuracy or confidence needed in the forecast. The first of these methods is the persistence method; the simplest way of producing a forecast. The persistence method assumes that the conditions at the time of the forecast will not change. For example, if it is sunny and 87 degree today, the persistence method predicts that it will be sunny and 87 degree tomorrow. If two inches of rain fell today, the persistence method would predict two inches of rain for tomorrow. However, if weather conditions change significantly from day to day, the persistence method usually breaks down and is not the best forecasting method to use. The trends method involves determining the speed and direction of movement for fronts, high and low pressure centers, and areas of clouds and precipitation. Using this information, the forecaster can predict where he or she expects those features to be at some future time. For example, if a storm system is 1,000 miles west of your location and moving to the east at 250 miles per day, using the trends method you would predict it to arrive in your area in 4 days. The trends method works well when systems continue to move at the same speed in the same direction for a long period of time. If they slow down, speed up, change intensity, or change direction, the trends forecast will probably not work as well. The climatology method is another simple way of producing a forecast. This method involves averaging weather statistics accumulated over many years to make the forecast. For example, if you were using the climatology method to predict the weather for New York City on July 4th, you would go through all the weather data that has been recorded for every July 4th and take an average. The climatology method only works well when the weather pattern is similar to that expected for the chosen time of year. If the pattern is quite unusual for the given time of year, the climatology method will often fail. The analog method is a slightly more complicated method of producing a forecast. It involves examining today’s forecast scenario and remembering a day in the past when the weather scenario looked very similar (an analog). The forecaster would predict that the weather in this forecast will behave the same as it did in the past. The analog method is difficult to use because it is virtually impossible to find a predict analog. Various weather features rarely align themselves in the same locations they were in the previous time. Even small differences between the current time and the analog can lead to very different results.

“Water, which is essential for life, costs nothing. On the other hand, diamonds, which are essential for nothing, cost a lot.“ Unfortunately, the world has changed considerably since an 18th century economist made this remark. What was true over 200 years ago is certainly no longer true now. In a number of countries people pay as much for water in their homes as they do for electricity. Like health, we ignore water when we have it--unless there are floods, of course. Once there is a threat to our water supply, however, water can quickly become the only thing that matters. We know only too well that, without water, there can be no life. The situation is now becoming so bad that environmentalists feel it may be necessary to shock the world into saving water in a similar way to the shock caused by the oil crises in the 1970’s. At that time, the oil crisis became such a serious threat to the lives of everyone in the developed countries that it made people conscious of the importance of saving oil and provided powerful encouragement for governments to look for other forms of energy. The result undoubtedly was of major benefit to energy conservation. There is now no longer an unlimited supply of fresh water. About 97 percent of the planet’s water is seawater. Another 2 percent is locked in icecaps and glaciers. There are also reserves of fresh water under the earth’s surface but these are too deep for us to use economically. Unfortunately, competition is growing fiercely for what little water is available. It may be a matter of time before that competition becomes a conflict. To make matters worse, the world’s population is increasing so rapidly that it is expected to grow to about 8 billion in 15 years. Moreover, in many developed countries throughout the world, flush lavatories and washing machines mean the average person now uses 300 litres of water a day compared with 50 at the beginning of last century. At the other extreme, according to the World Health Organization, one quarter of the world’s present population still lacks safe drinking water and proper sanitation. Most live in the southern hemisphere, where supplies of fresh water are put in jeopardy through dirty industrial practices, poor irrigation and erosion. The social stability of the world is no longer threatened by global wars, the Cold War. However, the supply of water could soon become the chief threat to such stability. There is already evidence of this happening, especially in Africa. Recently the Egyptian Government threatened to destroy any dams built on the Nile if they considered the dams would affect their supply of fresh water. What is required immediately is an awareness of the true value of water and the formation of sensible water conservation strategies. It is also of vital importance to have a consensus on how best to use shared water resources for the benefit of all the countries in the world as well as an examination of the best methods for the distribution of the world’s water.

Humans have always been fascinated by dreams. The vivid dreams people remember and talk about are REM dream—the type that occur almost continuously during periods of rapid eye movement (REM) during sleep. But people also have NREM dreams—dreams that occur during periods without rapid eye movement called NREM sleep—although they are typically less frequent and less memorable than REM dreams. REM dreams have a story like or dream like quality and are more visual, vivid, and emotional than NREM dreams. Interestingly, blind people who lose their sight before age five usually do not have visual dreams, but they have vivid dreams involving the other senses. A popular belief about dreams is that an entire dream takes place in an instant, but in fact, it is not true. Sleep researchers have discovered that it takes about as long to dream a dream as it would to experience the same thing in real life. Although some people insist that they do not dream at all, researchers say that all people dream unless they consume alcohol or take drugs that suppress REM sleep. Are dreaming and REM sleep essentially one and the same? Some researchers have questioned an assumption long held by some sleep experts that dreaming is simply the brain’s effort to make sense of the random firing of neurons that occurs during REM sleep. Are the brain mechanisms responsible for REM sleep the same ones that create the rich dream world we experience? The answer may be no. It is known that dreams do occur outside of REM sleep. Moreover, the REM state can exist without dreams. These two facts suggest that different but complementary brain mechanisms are responsible for REM sleep and the dreaming that normally occurs within it. There is mounting evidence, says British researcher Mark Solms, that dreaming and REM sleep, while normally occurring together, are not one and the same. Rather, the REM state is controlled by neural mechanisms in the brain stem, while areas farther up in the forebrain provide the common pathway that gives us the complex and often vivid mental experiences we call dreams. Other researchers suggest that REM sleep aids in information processing, helping people sift through daily experience to organize and store in memory information that is relevant to them. Animal studies provide strong evidence for a relationship between REM sleep and learning. Some studies have revealed that animals increase their REM sleep following learning sessions. Other studies have indicated that when animals are deprived of REM sleep after new learning, their performance of the learned task is impaired the following day. But depriving subjects of NREM sleep had no such effect in the studies. Research has shown that REM sleep serves an information-processing function in humans and is involved in the consolidation of memories after human learning. Researchers found that research participants learning a new perceptual skill showed an improvement in performance, with no additional practice, eight to ten hours later if they had a normal night’s sleep or if the researchers disturbed only their NREM sleep. Performance did not improve, however, in those who were deprived of REM sleep. There is no doubt that REM sleep serves an important function, even if psychologists do not know precisely what that function is. The fact that newborns have such a high percentage of REM sleep has led to the conclusion that REM sleep is necessary for maturation of the brain in infants. Furthermore, when people are deprived of REM sleep as a result of general sleep loss or illness, they will make up for the loss by getting an increased amount of REM sleep after the deprivation. This increase in the percentage of REM sleep to make up for REM deprivation is called a “REM rebound.“ Because the intensity of REM sleep is increased during a REM rebound, nightmares often occur.

For kids who are exposed to books at home, the loss of a library is sad. But for kids who come from environments where people don’t read, the loss of a library is a tragedy that might keep them from ever discovering the joys of reading—or from gathering the kind of information that will decide their lot in life. Jonathan Kozol, for decades an advocate for disadvantaged children, has observed that school libraries “remain the clearest window to a world of pure satisfactions and enticements that most children in poor neighborhoods will never know.“ Kids deprived of access to good libraries are also being kept from developing the information skills they need to keep up in workplaces that are increasingly dependent on rapidly changing information. The ability to conduct research is probably the most essential skill today’s students can have. The knowledge students acquire in school is not going to serve them throughout their lifetimes. Many of them will have four to five careers in a lifetime. It will be their ability to navigate information that will matter.

新中国正在成长，建设新中国需要中国人悠久传统的智慧。我们的国家和许多其他成功的国家都面临物质的诱惑，重视个人和家庭责任的古老道德传统将使中国受益匪浅。在中国如今经济成功的背后，有着朝气蓬勃的人才。在不久的将来，这些人将在这个政府中发挥积极和全面的作用。这所大学不仅在培养专家，同时也在培育公民。这些公民不是国家事务的旁观者，而是未来建设的参与者。

I am so confused! My watch says 7:55 and my wife’s watch says 7:50 but the clock in the living room says 8:12. It is around 5:00. It is around 10:00. It is around 12:00. It is around 8:00.

Yesterday morning Ann ran as fast as she could to catch the bus. Unfortunately she missed it and was late for class. Ann didn’t run fast enough to catch the bus. Therefore she missed the class. Ann ran very fast but she still missed the class. Ann missed the bus and was late for class even though she hurried. Ann didn’t run so she missed the bus.

Man: Hello. Woman: Hello, Sam. This is Paula Handson. Sorry to bother you. But I’m having a small problem I though you might be able to help me with. Man: Sure, Paula. What’s up? Woman: Well, you know Sarah and I moved into an off-campus apartment in the fall. over on the west side of town? Anyway we’ve been happy with it until the past couple of months. Man: Yeah. What happened? Woman: Well, the dishwasher broke down. SO we reported it to Ms Connors, the owner, she said she’d take care of it. But a month went by and nothing happened. Man: Did you get back in touch with her? Woman: I got a repairperson to give me an estimate, then I sent it to her. When I didn’t hear from her, I had the repair done. And I deducted the cost from the rent check. Man: So what’s the problem? Woman: She called here mad as a hornet. She said she could have gotten the repair done for less money. Now she’s threatening to evict us for not paying the full rent. Man: Hold on, Paula. It does sound pretty serious. But I’m sure you can all sit down and work this out. Woman: Well, you are over at the law school. So I wondered ff you would mind coming with Sarah and me when we go to talk to Ms. Connors. We’re supposed to meet with her tomorrow night at eight. Man: Sure. I haven’t studied a lot about contracts yet. But I’d be glad to help you straighten things out. Why don’t I stop by at around 7:30? Woman: Thanks, Sam. You’re a lifesaver. Questions: 11.Why was Paula unhappy? 12Why was Ms. Connors so angry? 13.What were Paula and her roommate planning to do? 14.Why does Paula think Sam can help her? She’s having trouble with the owner of the apartment. Her roommate won’t share expense. The apartment is too far from the campus. The dishwasher broke down and no one came to repair it.

There can be no doubt that the emergence of the Negro writer in the post-war period stemmed, in part, from the fact that he was inclined to exploit the opportunity to write about himself. It was more than that, however. The movement that has variously been called the “Harlem Renaissance,“ the “Black Renaissance,“ and the “New Negro Movement“ was essentially a part of the growing interest of American literary circles in the immediate and pressing social and economic problems. This growing interest coincided with two developments in Negro life that fostered the growth of the New Negro Movement. These two factors, the keener realization of injustice and the improvement of the capacity for expression, produced a crop of Negro writers who constituted the “Harlem Renaissance.“ The literature of the Harlem Renaissance was, for the most part, the work of a race-conscious group. Through poetry, prose, and song, the writers cried out against social and economic wrongs. They protested against segregation and lynching. They demanded higher wages, shorter hours, and better conditions of work. They stood for full social equality and first-class citizenship. The new vision of social and economic freedom which they had did not force them to embrace the several foreign ideologies that sought to sink their roots in some American groups during the period. The writers of the Harlem Renaissance, bitter and cynical as some of them were, gave little attention to the propaganda of the socialists and communists. The editor of the Messenger ventured the opinion that the New Negro was the “product of the same world-wide forces that have brought into being the great liberal and radical movements that are now seizing the reins of power in all the civilized countries of the world.“ Such forces may have produced the New Negro, but the more articulate of the group did not resort to advocating the type of political action that would have subverted American constitutional government. Indeed, the writers of the Harlem Renaissance were protesting its inefficient operation. In this approach they proved as characteristically American as any writers of the period. Like his contemporaries, the Negro writer was merely becoming more aware of America’s pressing problems; and like the others, he was willing to use his art, not only to contribute to the great body of American culture but to improve the culture of which he was a part. It seems possible, moreover, for the historian to assign to the Negro writer a role that he did not assume. There were doubtless many who were not immediately concerned with the injustices heaped on the Negro. Some contrived their poems, novels, and songs merely for the sake of art, while others took up their pens to escape the sordid aspects of their writings, it is because the writings flow out of their individual and group experiences. This is not to say that such writings were not effective as protest literature, but rather that not all the authors were conscious crusaders for a better world. As a matter of fact, it was this detachment, this objectivity, that made it possible for many of the writers of the Harlem Renaissance to achieve a mobility of expression and a poignancy of feeling in their writings that placed them among the masters of recent American literature.

What factor is NOT mentioned in choosing a forecasting method?

Which of the following is true about the persistence method?

The limitation of the trends method is the same as the persistence method in that

Which method may involve historical weather data?

It will be impossible to make weather forecast using the analog method